This is about Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing war.
As we turn corner into a year since the original thunder run it's becoming clearer that the aggressor does not have the capability to cleanly win the intended territories. As a corollary, neither does Ukraine have the ability to take over the defeated lands, but the West is flowing weapons into the country and an accelerated pace, so it's possible if not likely that things will run around soon. It's possible in the next year or so, by 2024, Ukraine will have taken most of the original non-Crimea territories, and with some luck and a whole lot of US military assistance, could make a realistic approach to Crimea as well.
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