China? China! China.....

More on the China situation, because I can't seem to make sense of the seemingly conflicting news coming from there. I believe there's an intense e power struggle on going within the CCP, one that Xi isn't necessarily winning. It's not to suggest the end of the party rule, but clearly the senior leadership is way more divided than they are letting on, their approach to dealing with the economic situation is scatterbrain, confused and unsure. That may or may not show itself in anything important, but at this point it would be unwise to trust the party leadership in making strong, confident surefooted decisions. The implementation is going to be all over the place too.

What are my predictions then? I belive there will be unexpected wild news coming out of the middle kingdom in the next 3 months, the nature of which I'm unmeof, but it'll likely have a massive domestic impact. The justifications will be made post-hoc, but the root cause will have been a power struggle within the CCP.

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